Trumped?

Donald Trump’s win in the Nevada Republican Caucus is shaking up both Republicans and Democrats.  While his strong string of victories does validate the strength of his army,  a closer examination of yesterday’s results highlights the folly of extracting a likelihood that a President Trump is a real possibility.  Caucus gatherings are more like a Comicon  convention than an primary election, and bear little resemblance to a national presidential election.  Nevada has about 3 million people.  About 1 million of them voted in the 2012 November election.   There are more Democrats than Republicans so Nevada is blue and voted for Obama in 2012, resoundingly.

So how many people came out to the Republican caucus?  74,698 total out of a Republican registration of about 486,000.  Of the 74K, Trump won 34,351 votes.  It might be enough to scare Republicans who fear a Trump nomination but should not be construed to predict a powerful movement nationwide to elect him President.  What it truly reflects is a phenomenon that is playing out in Europe too.  Big demographic change from traditionally white populations to a multi-cultural collage of newcomers who compete for jobs and tax benefits is fueling fear and outrage in Germany, Britain, France, Belgium, Austria, Hungary and more as new nationalistic parties and their blunt aggressive spokespeople claim more of the electorate.  Hundreds of years ago, invaders came and clubbed and shot their way into new territory.  Now they slip in quietly, crowd into garage apartments and start washing your car and cutting the grass.  This reality does hit some people squarely in the pocketbook more than others, combined with the  disappearance of good union jobs and outsourcing for the blue collared workforce.

The Hispanic voting population is growing every year.  Latinos were a tiny percentage of the Republican caucus goers but are a large segment of the population.  Trump is scaring their children into worrying that Mami and Papi might disappear overnight and Deferred Action college students are nervous.  They have lots of voting relatives even if they can’t vote themselves.  Trump piñatas are selling out and Univision and Telemundo networks will be getting their party sticks out in force if he wins the nomination.  The piñata? You might want to get yours soon.

References:  www.nvsos.gov, www.americanprogressaction.org